The Overrated
It all begins with an idea.
1. Cooper Kupp (WR)
Once an unstoppable force, Cooper Kupp's 2024 season, while solid, showed signs of fragility and a slight dip from his peak efficiency. Despite his pedigree, his current top-15 WR ADP is optimistic given his age and increasing target competition.
Age: Entering his age-32 season, a prime age for wide receiver decline, especially given his past injury history.
PFF Receiving Grade: While still good at 84.0 in 2024, it's not the elite 90+ grade from his monstrous 2021 season, suggesting a marginal drop in overall effectiveness.
Target Per Route Run (TPRR): His TPRR dipped slightly in 2024, indicating he might not command targets as effortlessly as before.
Yards After Catch (YAC): A noticeable decline in his average YAC per reception signals a potential loss of burst after the catch.
New Team: The Rams moved on from the Kupp dynasty by investing in Puka Nacua, who broke out in a major way, and picked up veteran Davante Adams during the offseason. With Kupp on the move to division rivals Seattle Seahawks, he will be poised into a new offense and take backseat to emerging star Jaxon Smith Njigba. Expect a few highlight games but should be looked as a bench player with injury or by week fill ins.
2. Joe Mixon (RB)
Joe Mixon has been a reliable fantasy back for years. However, his consistent volume in a high-powered Texans offense might be masking underlying inefficiencies, making his top-25 RB ADP for 2025 a risky proposition, especially if his role isn't as secure as it seems.
Age & Workload: Entering his age-29 season with significant career carries, the wear and tear could begin to show considering he started off the first half of the year much more efficiently than the second half .
PFF Rushing Grade: His 2024 PFF rushing grade (75.2) was respectable but not elite, suggesting he's more of a volume-dependent runner.
Yards Per Carry: During the 2024/2025 season he averaged 4.2 yards per carry with a respectful 8 20+ yard plays. Only behind Derek Henry(Bal), Saquon (Phi), Jordan Mason (Min), J.Taylor (Indy).
The Texans also still have Dameon Pierce, who could eat into early-down or goal-line work. Mixon’s 12 total touchdowns in 2024 inflated his fantasy value, but that volume likely won’t carry over. Drafting him based on name recognition rather than situation could burn managers banking on RB2 production.
3. George Kittle (TE)
George Kittle remains one of the NFL's most dynamic tight ends when healthy, but that "when healthy" qualifier is becoming increasingly problematic. His top-5 TE ADP is a bet on ceiling that ignores a growing injury history and an inconsistent target share in the 49ers' multifaceted offense.
Injury History: Multiple missed games in recent seasons and persistent nagging injuries are a major concern for durability.
Target Share Volatsility: In 2024, despite being healthy for most games, his target share fluctuated wildly week-to-week depending on the health and involvement of Deebo Samuel (who is now on Washington) and Brandon Aiyuk.
PFF Receiving Grade: While typically elite, (e.g., 88.0 in 2024), his usage as a blocker can sometimes overshadow his receiving upside on a per-snap basis.
New Players & Context: The 49ers' offense is a true committee of playmakers. With Brandon Aiyuk solidifying his role, and the running back room constantly churning out production, Kittle's target volume can be unpredictable. Any increase in usage for other emerging talents or potentially a new, more receiving-focused complementary tight end could further cap Kittle's weekly upside, especially if he misses time.
4. Russell Wilson (QB)
After a turbulent 2024 season and a change of scenery to a new team , Russell Wilson's name carries name recognition, but his top-15 QB ADP for 2025 is based more on past glory than recent performance or his new team's offensive philosophy.
PFF Passing Grade: His 2024 PFF passing grade (68.5, hypothetical) was significantly lower than his career average, indicating a decline in consistent accuracy and decision-making.
Deep Ball Accuracy: While known for his deep ball, his accuracy on throws 20+ yards downfield might be the only thing that keep him attractive on a New York team that has been shakey the past few years.
Rushing Decline: His once-elite rushing floor has largely disappeared, removing a key component of his fantasy value.
Sack Rate: Continued struggles with holding onto the ball too long, leading to a high sack rate.