The Overrated
As familiar veteran names pop up in early rankings, it’s a perfect time to start considering whose past glories might be inflating their future value.
Aaron Jones had a solid 2024 with the Vikings, finishing as the RB15 in PPR formats, but his top-15 RB ADP for 2025 is a stretch. At 31, his PFF overall grade dropped to 74.2, his lowest since 2018, and his yards per carry (4.3) ranked 35th among qualified RBs. The Vikings’ signing of J.K. Dobbins in free agency signals a committee backfield, with Dobbins’ 2024 PFF rushing grade (82.1) outshining Jones’. Minnesota’s pass-heavy offense (4,012 passing yards in 2024) limits RB touches, and Jones’ injury history (missed 4 games in 2024) adds risk. His ADP banks on name recognition, not a workhorse role. Draft Tip: Pivot to younger RBs like Isiah Pacheco or De’Von Achane for better value.
Amari Cooper finished 2024 as the WR22 in PPR, but his top-20 WR ADP ignores Cleveland’s messy situation. His PFF receiving grade of 77.4 was solid, but his 1.7 yards per route run ranked 42nd among WRs. The Browns’ 2025 addition of Diontae Johnson and Cedrick Tillman’s return, paired with a shaky QB situation (Kenny Pickett, Joe Flacco, Dillon Gabriel, Shedeur Sanders), threatens his 134-target share from 2024. Cleveland’s passing game ranked 28th in yards, and Cooper, at 31, is losing separation against elite corners. Draft Tip: Skip Cooper for WRs in better offenses, like DK Metcalf or Calvin Ridley.
Mike Evans delivered another 1,000-yard season in 2024, finishing as the WR16 in PPR, but his top-15 WR ADP is risky. At 32, his PFF receiving grade (76.8) was his lowest since 2017, and his yards per route run (1.9) ranked 34th among WRs. Tampa Bay’s 2025 draft pick, Jalen McMillan, and the emergence of Trey Palmer could cut into Evans’ 126 targets from 2024. With Baker Mayfield’s inconsistent deep ball (PFF deep passing grade: 71.2), Evans’ big-play dependency (10 TDs in 2024) may wane. His ADP assumes another elite season, but age and competition suggest regression. Draft Tip: Target WRs with higher target shares, like A.J. Brown or Garrett Wilson.
Matthew Stafford ended 2024 as the QB14 in fantasy points, yet his top-12 QB ADP rides on his Super Bowl pedigree. At 37, his PFF passing grade (75.9) ranked 20th among QBs, and his 3,472 passing yards were his lowest since 2019. The Rams’ 2025 draft pick, Jake Haener, as a backup hints at a transition, and their run-heavy scheme (1st in run play percentage in 2024) caps Stafford’s volume. With Cooper Kupp gone and Puka Nacua commanding targets, Stafford’s ceiling lags behind mobile QBs like Jayden Daniels. Draft Tip: Don’t chase Stafford’s name—grab a dual-threat QB for more upside.
Why These Veterans Are Overhyped
These players are buoyed by past accolades or 2024 spikes, but their 2025 outlooks raise concerns. PFF grades reveal declining efficiency, and team changes—like new WRs or committee backfields—erode their opportunities. Age is a factor: Jones, Cooper, and Evans face an NFL trend where only 13.8% of RB touches and 15.2% of WR targets in 2024 went to players 30+. Stafford’s lack of mobility limits his fantasy ceiling. Their ADPs are driven by hype, not sustainable production.
